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Caribbean forecasters warn of a 'wet' dry season !

(Ean Wallace Weather Blog) Permanent link
Do not forget your umbrella this dry season - Caribbean forecasters warn of a 'wet' dry season !

During January  to March 2012, "the eastern Caribbean and Guyana are expected to experience
above normal rainfall " according to a quarterly update issued by the Caribbean Institute
Meteorology and Hydrology
.

La Nina, the weather phenomenon widely blamed for flooding rains in 2011, may persist longer
than expected and be  of "weak-to-moderate strength" during the early part of the Caribbean climatological dry season of 2012 and thereafter weaken by May.

La Nina increases rainfall particularly over the Guianas, Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago. This
atmospheric phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean influences wind and rainfall patterns across northern South America and can last for several years. La Nina's counterpart is the more infamous El Nino that is caused by an abnormal cooling of waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

A prolonged drought is threatening production of corn, coffee in Argentina and Brazil. Meanwhile
in Colombia, steady rains threaten the worlds top source of high quality coffee beans.

If La Nina persists until the start of the annual Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, then more storms than normal will form in the Atlantic Ocean and track further south into the Caribbean.

A New Year?

(Ean Wallace Weather Blog) Permanent link

The New Year is here but conditions have not changed weather-wise from 2011 to 2012. The 2012 dry season is underway although the rainy skies would suggest otherwise. There have been several more bouts of heavy showers and street flooding. Last year (2011) ended rather wet as December's rainfall total was 172 mm compared to the climatic average of 156mm.

The dry season has a transition period rather than a start date like the Hurricane Season. The stable, atmospheric conditions usually evolve during January and continue through to Late May or early June. Dry season does not mean no rainfall but rather that rainfall is rare compared to the almost longer rainy periods during the 'wet season'.

As the dry season gets into full flow, I'll also be watching the thermometers though as the nights can turn quite cold during January and February.

Cold fronts from North America can often make their way through the Caribbean and reach northern South America. Although these cold fronts are not as cold when they arrive, these intrusions of cool air can add a surprising chill to the air.

 

2011 hurricane season ends

(Ean Wallace Weather Blog) Permanent link

2011 hurricane season ends

 

The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season ends today as third most active season since records began in 1851 (joining 1887, 1995 and 2010). US hurricane agency, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has analyzed 19 named tropical systems in the Tropical Atlantic Basin this season, with seven reaching  hurricane status and three major hurricane status (Category 3 hurricane or stronger).

 

NOAA’s final statistics included a post-storm upgrade of Tropical Storm Nate to hurricane status and the addition of a previously unclassified, unnamed tropical storm.

 

Here’s a video from NOAA that shows the 2011 season from June 1 to November 30,  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fX7Q-0QuID4.

 

Images below courtesy Accuweather.com :

Hurricane Season 2

 

Hurricane Season

 

 

 

Most powerful Pacific hurricane for November

(Ean Wallace Weather Blog) Permanent link
Hurricane Kenneth is the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the East Pacific Basin so late in the season.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic Basin may also have a late bloomer. Atmospheric conditions remain favourable for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic. Although the ocean is cooling, water temperatures are still above normal in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea for November.

The 2011 hurricane season has been very active as forecast; 18 storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.

POSSIBLE INTENSE THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON

 Permanent link
Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service Bulletin

Date: Monday 21st of November 2011
ISSUED AT:01:03PM

POSSIBLE INTENSE THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON
Out of an abundance of caution and given the
situation on the ground following Saturday’s
weather event over some parts of western
Trinidad, the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological
Service is advising of possible intense
thundershower activity this afternoon, again over
western Trinidad.



Local environmental conditions inclusive of strong
uplift, light surface winds and significant
heating over the course of this morning have
presented very suitable conditions for intense
thundershower activity.


Rainfall accumulations in excess of 30 millimeters
are possible. Moderate to severe street/flash
flooding, gusty winds in excess of 45 km/hr and
landslip/landslides along the slopes of the
Northern Range are also likely.
Fair conditions are expected to return this
evening into tonight.



Citizens are advised to be vigilant and cautious
as they conduct their activities. Be alert to any
electrical discharges from thundercloud activity
and adopt measures which would preserve life and
property.
WE STRONGLY UNDERSCORE THAT TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
IS NOT UNDER ANY TROPICAL STORM THREAT, WATCH OR
WARNING AT THIS TIME.
The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service is
closely monitoring weather conditions and will
issue another bulletin if the situation
warrants.



E. Sampson
Meteorologist

Bahamas extends storm warning times

(Ean Wallace Weather Blog) Permanent link
The Bahamas has extended its storm warning times giving Bahamians and disaster managers extra, preparation time for evacuations ahead of tropical cyclones.
Hurricane watches were extended from 36 hours to 48 hours and the issuing of hurricane warnings from 24 hours to 36 hours.

The Bahamas is a low lying coastal state prone to flooding. Environment Minister Earl Deveaux hopes these amendments will help the Department of Meteorology give greater assistance in evacuations when needed according to The Tribune newspaper. "Disasters are also very costly," said Mr Deveaux "having earlier more accurate warnings can only help to alleviate pain and suffering and reduce the loss of property and possibly lives."

Amendments to the Disaster Preparedness and Response Bill were also necessary to conform
with the warnings issued by other Caribbean members of the World Meteorological Organization.

ANOTHER RAINY START TO THE DRY SEASON

(Ean Wallace Weather Blog) Permanent link

ANOTHER RAINY START TO THE DRY SEASON

Caribbean forecasters believe the eastern Caribbean and Guyana is set to start the 2012 dry season very wet. The wet start to the dry season follows on from the very, wet season and dry seasons in 2011.

 

Precip2

 

There is a high certainty that rainfall will be above normal in Trinidad and Tobago from December 2011 into January 2012 according to the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology.
Meanwhile, over the far north of the Caribbean, the Bahamas should be rather dry with below normal rainfall likely into the new year. Moreover, the islands in the Greater Antilles of Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic will likely experience near normal rainfall.

Why so wet?
La Niña conditions present across the equatorial Pacific may well strengthen through 2012.


Besides La Nina, warmer waters in the Caribbean Sea and above normal ambient temperatures will be maintained over the southern portion of the eastern chain.


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